Impacts of the Hancock Village Development on Brookline
The scope of the proposed Hancock Village Development is unprecedented in recent Brookline history. This development will negatively impact Brookline’s finances and its public school system, and will change the face of Brookline for the worse.
Financial Impacts
Currently Hancock Village costs the Town about $2,200,000 a year due to imbalance between costs (infrastructure, schools) and tax revenue (Brookline Preliminary Financial Impact Statement). This was also reported in the Brookline Tab. Extrapolating to an increase in size by 190%, the loss would be nearly $4.200,000 a year. The loss may be greater in the short term, as the town will have to pay for infrastructure improvements (water, sewage) to handle the size of the development.
Formal Financial Impact statements are being prepared by CHR and Brookline independently.
School Impacts
The neighborhood school current receives about 237 students out of 687 total from Hancock Village (34.5%). They are distributed disproportionately in K-3, so that nearly 50% of students in these grades comes from Hancock Village. The student per household ratio of Hancock Village is high (2.5 more school children per household than the Brookline average--see Brookline Prelim Financial Impact Statement). Extrapolating from these data, the Hancock Village development would increase the number of students to 500, so that Hancock Village students would comprise 54% of the Baker School student body.
Brookline schools are already overcrowded, so that the Town is scrambling to find enough classrooms to achieve the goal of ~20 students per class. This was recently highlighted in an article in www.boston.com, in several presentations by Dr. Lupini to the School Committee and to the South Brookline Neighborhood Association, and in an Letter to the Brookline Tab by Fred Wang, former School Committee Member. Addition of ~200 students to Baker will create a ripple effect throughout Brookline as buffer zone students are pushed into other already overcrowded schools. Moreover, it is likely that this number of additional students would require the construction of a 9th elementary school (the Baldwin site has been mentioned) and redrawing of school zones and buffer zones. Much of the cost of building a 9th school would be borne by the Town, as well as the estimated $9 million per year operating expense. A further discussion will be required on which students from South Brookline would go to schools other than Baker so as to optimize diversity and stability in the schools.
South Brookline Impacts
Hancock Village enriches the diversity of South Brookline. However, increasing the size of the development by 190% will urbanize the region, lead to increased traffic congestion, and secondarily increase retail development. The essential character of South Brookline is a residential suburb, and these changes will detract from this character. These changes are opposite to the vision of the Comprehensive Plan.
CHR and Brookline consultants find proposed development will lead to annual deficits of $500,000 to $1,000,000.
In early Feb 2010, CHR acknowledged that its initial proposal would have had a negative financial impact on the Town, as confirmed by their own financial impact consultant. In September, the Town released the financial impact statements from CHR and from its own consultant. The Town's analysis is that the proposed development would lead to an annual deficit of approximately $1 million per year. CHR's consultant found that the deficit would be $500,000 per year. Selecting numbers generated by each consultant, the loss could easily be $2 million per year. If student enrollment is at current levels rather than at reduced levels as projected by the consultants, the loss could be as much as $4 million per year. These figures are in addition to the $2 million per year that the Town currently estimates it loses due to Hancock Village. The figures also do not include the contribution of Hancock Village expansion to the need for construction of a new elementary school. An important point to ponder is why the Town obtained the reports in May but did not release them until September.
Subsequently, CHR revised its plans and estimated that the revised expansion would no longer cause the Town a loss. The calculation is based on assumptions about the ability to restrict occupancy to two occupants per bedroom and to seniors in nearly half the units. The legality and enforceability of these restrictions remains to be determined. The Town's legal analysis suggests that senior housing restrictions are legal, but 55+ developments can have up to 20% units without such age restrictions. It also indicates that occupancy restrictions are legal but perhaps not when targeted at one development. Making these restrictions durable over time is another problem. Enforcement of these restrictions is yet another unknown: who will be responsible for enforcement, and who will pay for lack of enforcement? The Town's financial impact analysis found that the revised plan might generate a small net positive revenue for the Town under certain assumptions, but that additional factors would likely lead to a net loss for the Town (20% of senior units without age restrictions; need to expand the schools for even 33 new students; cost of enforcement).
Open Space
Increased density in Hancock Village will reduce its open space and destroy the garden village style that makes this apartment complex historically significant. Development also threatens the cherised greenbelt that separates Hancock Village from the adjacent neighborhood. The 2010 Brookline Open Space Plan (7.5 MB) specifically indicated the importance of protecting open space at Hancock Village.